"IMD Forecasts On-Time Monsoon Arrival in Andaman Sea for 2026"

Developing El Niño Conditions Predicted to Influence Onset of Southwest Monsoon

This year’s Southwest Monsoon is anticipated to commence amidst the evolving El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted a timely onset over the Andaman Sea around May 20, with indications pointing towards a gradual progression over various regions.

According to IMD, the Southwest Monsoon is projected to set in over sections of the South Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands by the end of the upcoming week, spaing from May 14 to May 20. The weather bureau has highlighted the likelihood of light to moderate rainfall in several areas, with isolated instances of heavy to very heavy precipitation expected across Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and southern parts of peninsular India.

Reports indicate that pre-monsoon showers, accompanied by thunder and lightning, have already been observed in various parts of southern peninsular India. These early signs suggest a potentially active monsoon season ahead under the influence of the developing El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean.

IMD had previously predicted below-average rainfall for the country, estimating it to be around 92% of the long-period average (1971-2020). With climatic conditions aligning, the Southwest Monsoon traditionally arrives in the Andaman Sea and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the third week of May before progressing towards mainland India.

The Southwest Monsoon is a crucial period in India, contributing to over 70% of the aual rainfall during the June to September timeframe. On average, the country receives approximately 880 mm of rainfall during the four-month monsoon season.

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